Is Anyone Beyond Elon Musk Interested in Autonomous Vehicles?

I don’t know about you, but I’m not all that much in favor of cars (and trucks, maybe mostly trucks) on the highways and city streets without drivers. Think about it for a moment. Drunks, hotheads, and confused little old ladies are still going to be with us for another half century or more. Do we really want to add all those people sleeping off a drunk in the back seat?

I feel about that just about how I feel to leave this gorgeous green planet we live on (and fight on) for Mars.

Why?

There are economic issues as well. Whether or not AI actually comes for your or my job, it’s certainly going to have an impact on the available jobs scene.

Here in the United States, there are somewhere about 1.9 to 2.4 million people driving taxis or ride-hailing services. Those are going to be the first job losses, because those are the people we pay to drive us, the father holding down two jobs, and the college kid trying to make it through without a student loan.

Private salary surveys estimate taxi drivers at around $19–$20/hour, and Uber-types dialing in at about thirty bucks. So, we’re looking at $38-$60,000 a year if you drive full time. Two million jobs off the employment rolls and maybe as much 120 billion dollars lost to the economy.

Maybe not entirely lost. That $120 billion would find its way into the pockets of our billionaire class through private equity, where it’s pretty much untaxed.

But grandma and gramps, along with cars that go 0 to 60mph in three seconds, the road-ragers, and all the kids learning to drive (with their arms around girlfriends and rampaging hormones) are still out there. If Elon can goose Tesla into that scenario, his Board of Directors has promised him a $trillion bonus.

And, in my flustered condition, I entirely failed to include truck drivers. The Teamster’s Union would never forgive me.

Those are the pros, the guys (and now women) who can be depended upon to drive absolutely everything you consume, its last mile. Between GPS, electric trucks, and Robotics, these dudes and dudesses will soon be off the road. And don’t forget public transport.

The number will send chills down your spine. A little over 3 ½ million truck driver, and 180-190,000 bus drivers. That’s a combined total near four million, at an average $70,000 wage. That’s another $280 billion ka-ching out of the Gross National Product.

Even though these hard working Americans will have to find employment elsewhere, we have to gaze into our crystal ball and determine just where elsewhere is.

Any ideas out there?

Elon?

Hello, Elon, Earth calling…