The Demise of International Law by Acquiescence
Not really giving a damn, other than to complain, Europe is the primary enabler of Donald Trump’s assault on international law.
Trump’s part in its demise should come as no surprise.
His business career was built on tax and contract avoidance, both accomplished by swindles and his endless deep-pocket threat of appeal. Contractors, and other purveyors of services were unable to sustain the court costs. Trump sustained them, both by settling for half in the contractor world and simply avoiding payment to legal firms until they caved in as well.
There proved to be an ultimate cost to him, as bankruptcies and refinancings would prove. His claims of wealth were scams as well. The man’s habits, weaknesses, susceptibility to flattery, and willingness to throw others under the bus were well known.
Europe, the Middle East, and the international community were flummoxed by his first presidency and astounded by his second.
With the exception of China.
China has two weapons the world outside its borders has failed thus far to understand: 1) It is a benign dictatorship, which gives it tremendous power to move quickly, and 2) it grew by accepting the gift of the US industrial base by the billionaire class.
China is not so much a disruptor, as it is a student and, like any talented student, has learned to play the long game. But that’s another story, and a very interesting one for later discussion.
Our subject today is understanding the short game.
International law is under threat and Trump has three years to go. There is no reason for Europe (and the world) to stand like a deer, frozen in the headlights.
Well, maybe, maybe not.
President Trump declared recently that his power as commander in chief is constrained only “by his own morality,” brushing aside international law and other checks on his ability to use military might to strike, invade or coerce nations around the world.
Asked in a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times if there were any limits on his global powers, Mr. Trump said: “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.”
A chilling thought, but wrong.
Our sitting president is particularly vulnerable to market fluctuations, and that is where the pressure must be applied.
Sanctions are at least one answer.
According to Columbia University, the United States has imposed two-thirds of the world’s sanctions between the 1990s and circa 2023 (old news from a couple years ago). In 2024, the Washington Post said that the United States inflicted “three times as many sanctions as any other country or international body, targeting a third of all nations with some kind of financial penalty on people, properties or organizations.“
Estimates show that United States sanctions result in the deaths of more than 500,000 people internationally every year.
But we love ‘em.
Comprehensive sanctions are currently in place targeting Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia, nearly countless others, and certain conflict regions of Ukraine.
These heavily restrict nearly all trade and financial transactions between U.S. persons and those regions.
Roughly 20–22% of total U.S. trade is with Europe (counting the countries of the European Union plus the U.K., Switzerland, Norway, etc.).
Total U.S. global trade is roughly $6.8–7.0 trillion, so Europe accounts for about one-fifth of it. The U.S.–Europe economic system together represents nearly half of the world’s economic output.
As for imports, Europe provides roughly 17–19% of all U.S. imports, many of them supply-chain essentials for industry. If Europe were to sanction the United States, all hell would break loose.
Mark Carney, Prime Ministaer of Canada, has proven that survival is possible, and even profitable, in a sanctions war with the US.
If Europe wants to stop whining and get Trump’s attention, ”all hell breaking loose” is the way to do it.
Wall Street, Trump’s personal business interests, his MAGA base, and billionaire enablers would pay attention. The entire world has been Trump’s tariff victim for a year now, and Europe trembles as the international rules of law come apart at the seams.
That will not solve itself.
Perhaps Europe will stand up with sanctions and solve it.
It’s the only thing that can stop him.